From Window to Vulnerable: Institutional Persistence, Asymmetric Transitions, and Democratic Constraints in Pension Adaptation

Abstract

This paper examines pension preparedness trajectories across 115 countries from

2000 to 2024 using a dynamic transition framework. Pairing a Policy Readiness Index

(PRI) with a Demographic Pressure Index (DPI), we track movements across four

institutional regimes over five-year intervals. Panel analysis reveals extreme

persistence, with 94.5 percent of observations remaining static. Transitions are

overwhelmingly deterioration-driven, primarily moving from the "Window for Reform"

to "Vulnerable." Crucially, Firth penalized logit estimations show that higher democracy

scores significantly increase the probability of transition failure; intense electoral

competition constrains anticipatory reform before demographic pressures become

politically salient. This structural trap operates deterministically across Africa, where

all observed non-stable transitions represent failed windows. The findings

demonstrate that pension vulnerability is not mechanically determined by

demographics but is actively mediated by institutional persistence and competitive

political constraints.